As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, movie theaters in the U.S. and Canada are primed for one of the most significant box office weekends since the onset of the pandemic. Fueled by a compelling lineup of highly anticipated films, the five-day holiday weekend from Wednesday to Sunday is projected to bring in estimations between $200 million to $300 million. Among the standout titles, Disney’s “Moana 2” is anticipated to lead the charge, alongside Universal’s “Wicked” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II.”
The landscape of this year’s Thanksgiving releases boasts a triumvirate that is rare in its mass appeal. Analysts like Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango, recognize the potential impact of these films on the overall box office. “The trifecta of ‘Moana 2,’ ‘Wicked,’ and ‘Gladiator II’ is a bona fide perfect storm for movie theaters this Thanksgiving,” Robbins asserts. This combination of family-oriented animation, musical fantasy, and epic drama could result in a significant surge in viewership, comfortably positioning it among the highest-earning Thanksgivings in film history.
For the first time since 2019, the box office has the opportunity to witness revenues that collectively surpass that magical $200-million mark, which has been elusive in the post-pandemic reality. To put it into perspective, pre-pandemic Thanksgivings routinely posted impressive figures, such as 2018’s blockbuster lineup that generated a whopping $315 million, a record still standing strong today.
Thanksgiving has always held an important position in the cinematic calendar. It serves not only as a barometer for a successful year-end sprint but as a pivotal period that can influence the overall yearly performance of the box office. According to Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore, “Thanksgiving is arguably the most important holiday period of the year for movie theaters.” The outcome of this weekend could set the tone for the final weeks of the year, which may ultimately define whether the year concludes as a triumph or a disappointment for studios and exhibitors alike.
Given the variety of genres present this Thanksgiving, there is something for every demographic. This aspect is vital in enabling the film industry to broaden its appeal beyond singular target audiences—a challenge that has beset filmmakers since theaters reopened.
Disney’s Animation Battle
Disney has long dominated the Thanksgiving box office with an impressive lineup of animation features. However, recent years saw a disheartening trend as several titles fell short of expectations. For context, “Moana” premiered in 2016 with a successful $82.1 million debut, while ” Frozen II” fetched $125 million in 2019. Yet, 2022’s “Strange World” and 2023’s “Wish” delivered disappointing gross receipts, raising questions about Disney’s animation prowess.
With “Moana 2” making its entrance, there’s a palpable hope for a return to glory. The film’s anticipated success stems not only from its prequel’s legacy but also from the positive reception of Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2,” which opened to $154.2 million earlier this summer. This has fostered optimism among viewers and industry insiders alike, igniting the belief that pre-pandemic success could very well be replicated once more.
As we edge closer to Thanksgiving, excitement builds in anticipation of how these films will perform at the box office. The synergy of releases has the potential to create a monumental weekend that may reshape predictions for cinematic revenues heading into 2024. The outcome could indicate a resurgence for movie theaters, validating their place in the entertainment ecosystem post-pandemic.
While the box office has endured its share of struggles in recent years, Thanksgiving 2023 stands as a pivotal turning point. With audiences eager to return to theaters, the weekend could either cement a comeback narrative for the industry or further highlight the challenges ahead. Regardless of the result, one thing remains clear: the collective release of “Moana 2,” “Wicked,” and “Gladiator II” heralds hope for a stronger post-pandemic film landscape.
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