As moviegoers gear up for the Thanksgiving weekend, Hollywood is set to usher in a colorful clash between two major cinematic releases. Universal’s eagerly anticipated adaptation of “Wicked” and Paramount’s sequel “Gladiator II” are breaking onto the scene, with projections suggesting they will collectively generate over $200 million in ticket sales. This much-anticipated duo represents a unique counter-programming strategy that analysts believe could invigorate movie theaters that have experienced both triumphs and downturns throughout this fall.
Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory, stated, “These films are the types of offerings audiences have been waiting for.” The synchronized release of such dramatically different films ignites excitement for a holiday box office season that seems primed for success with additional blockbusters like “Moana 2” set to debut next week.
The musical “Wicked,” based on the iconic Broadway show, has already made substantial waves at the box office, collecting an impressive $19.2 million from advanced screenings throughout the week. Particularly noteworthy is its initial performance over Thanksgiving, which showcases a strong showing from Amazon Prime subscribers, who contributed $2.5 million on Monday alone across 750 U.S. theaters. In addition, the film raked in $5.7 million from around 2,000 theaters on Wednesday, while standard Thursday preview screenings across 3,300 theaters added another $11 million to the total.
Initial tracking had estimated “Wicked” would open with around $80 million — a figure that has since skyrocketed to between $120 million and $140 million as anticipation builds. This momentous debut could potentially mark the highest-grossing opening weekend for a Broadway adaptation to date, a significant milestone considering the struggles the industry has faced with similar titles in the past.
With an impressive 92% rating on Rotten Tomatoes from over 160 critics and a staggering 99% on its popcornmeter based on 2,500 audience ratings, “Wicked” is poised to attract audiences beyond just fans of theater. Its cinematic appeal and established fandom provide a significant advantage as it takes on the box office this weekend.
Gladiator II: A Long-Awaited Return
On the other side, “Gladiator II” is making its entrance nearly a quarter-century after its predecessor revitalized the historical epic genre. It has kickstarted its box office run with $6.5 million from Thursday-night previews and is projected to rake in between $60 million and $80 million during its opening weekend. With a 73% Fresh rating from over 200 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, this sequel carries the weight of high expectations as it embarks on a new narrative journey that fans have been waiting for.
Comparatively, the original “Gladiator” debuted to $34.8 million in May 2000, placing it as a monumental success for its time. The modern-day sequel seeks to recapture that magic while also catering to a new generation of movie lovers.
But more than just their individual merits, both films have catalyzed buzz reminiscent of the “Barbenheimer” phenomenon, where seemingly disparate titles generate interest through cultural conversation. As Paul Dergarabedian, a senior media analyst at Comscore, stated, the synergy between these two contrasting films enhances their visibility and expands their audience reach.
Combining the anticipated sales from “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” alongside films already in theaters, the weekend could see total sales reach between $200 million and $250 million. While a remarkable number, it still wouldn’t break into the top 20 all-time highest-grossing weekends, with this year’s monumental “Barbenheimer” weekend ringing in at $311 million.
Though the weekend’s figures speak to initial success, Shawn Robbins reminds audiences that the longevity of these films is where they can truly shine. As both titles garner positive reviews and favorable word-of-mouth, they may continue to perform well throughout the holiday season.
Moreover, this weekend is particularly crucial for the overall annual box office, which lags behind prior year’s levels. Theatre executives like Greg Marcus, CEO of Marcus Corporation, emphasize the importance of delivering a stellar customer experience to encourage continued patronage in the face of industry challenges.
Cinema chains nationwide are capitalizing on the excitement generated by these two films with special promos, themed merchandise, and unique menu items. From “Gladiator II” popcorn buckets shaped like the Colosseum to AMC’s inventive green and pink candy-coated popcorn, theater owners are committed to enhancing the moviegoing experience.
Ultimately, with “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” pitted against each other, this weekend promises to reshape the landscape of the box office, emphasizing the resilience and vibrancy of movie theaters amidst an ever-challenging industry. Whether it leads to record-breaking weekends or a resurgence of interest in film musicals and historical epics, this Thanksgiving will undoubtedly be one for the books.
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